HSL Junior

---January 15, 2006---

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HSL Junior

---January 15, 2006---

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The Big Picture---

 

 

 

 

 

 


DJ World Index

DJ World Index closed Friday Nov 25 at 230.09, ie up 2.94 on the week.

DJ World Index weekly chart - basis line on close:


Sharp reversal to new closing highs after false breakdown from Mar 2003 bearish upwedge (lower boundary of possible upwedge has been redrawn to include Oct lows). Main focus on 2001-2204 reverse head & shoulder base with 270 theoretical upside target. Spinner failed to confirm new highs in price, but shorterm strength in red timing line likely to alleviate negative bearing in blue confirming line. MACD in uncertain positive cross above zero line. Price firmly above its 85-week moving average. Chart bullish.

DJ World Index daily chart - basis line on close:


Rose above 2½ month reverse head & shoulder base; 235 likely upside target. Spinner & MACD up trending in top end of positive territory. Price action bullish but don't loose sight of would-be broadening top (B/T) from Dec '04 peak. The orthodox B/T top has three peaks at successively higher levels and, between them, two bottoms with the second bottom lower than the first (see numbers 1 through 5 on the above chart). Thus need persistent rise above 240 top boundary resistance to eradicate B/T threat, whereas any significant weakness from current levels would raise an amber flag with dip below 205 required to validate a major top. Chart shorterm bullish.

Note: free online charts of DJWI available via: www.bigcharts.com
Symbol: 26099103


Dow Industrial vs. Dow Transportation


Dow Industrial vs. Dow Transportation Index -weekly chart:


Industrials: prior head & shoulder tip voided via rise above left/right shoulder highs. Price on brink of possible upside breakout from 22-month 9757-10,940 trading range & run towards 12,123 measured target. Key momentum indicators in nascent bull mode. Modest risk of double top till 10,940 exceeded. Technical buying (on breakout) could fuel sharp rally-leg. Chart bullish.

Transports: gave lead signal of strength via explosive rise above top boundary resistance of 12-month 3360-3832 trading zone; 4418 provisional upside target. Spinner & MACD in new positive cross above zero & placed to confirmed sustained strength. Chart bullish.

Basis Dow Theory, a decisive rise above 11,000 in industrials is required to confirm the upside breakout in transports & validate a new bull cue. If seen, recent trading range activity in both indexes may provide footing for a sustained & determined rally leg.


S&P500 Index

S&P500 Mar futures closed Friday Nov 25 at 1278.30 ie, up 20.20pts on the week.

The Commitment of Traders report shows S&P500 commercial hedgers reduced 375 longs, bringing total longs to 462,553, whilst shorts reduced 703 contracts, bringing total shorts to 467,543. Large speculators are holding 59,621 longs against 67,365 shorts. And, small traders are holding 129,783 longs against 117,049 shorts.

Bullish Consensus shows S&P 500 at 70%. Says: "S&P 500 futures are moving sideways/higher in a test of short-term overhead resistance. The
Daily Bullish Consensus is up 1 to 70 and rises within the overbought
window. Short Term Momentum Oscillators are rising within the overbought window, as well. Signals remain neutral/bullish short-term. The intermediate trend is cautiously bullish/neutral." End quote.

S&P500 (continuation Cx) weekly chart - line on close:


Explosive reversal & push to new closing highs after bogus breakdown from possible Mar 2003 bearish upwedge (lower boundary of upwedge has been redrawn to include Oct lows). 2001-2004 bullish reverse head & shoulder base offers 1520 conditional upside target. Spinner in positive cross but blue confirming line vulnerable to any shorterm weakness in red timing line. Bearish divergence apparent in MACD via 2 lower lows vs. 2 higher highs in price, but remains timidly bullish as long as plotlines hold zero. Chart bullish.

S&P 500 Mar futures daily chart - line on close:


Marginally failed to complete measured target of May-Oct head & shoulder top. Current reversal/rally-leg remains within realms of possible broadening top (explained in DJWI commentary) from Dec 2004 peak; need determined rise above 1300 to void B/T risk, or forceful break below 1153 to validate major top. Momentum indicators pushing upper limits of overbought window; raises odds for shorterm consolidation decline of some sort (ie: dip towards Aug downtrend support). Chart bullish to shorterm neutral.

FMU Traders Guidelines:

Per FMU Sept 25: gamblers exited Dec longs with loss :-(. Took profits at 1st target in Dec shorts & exited 2nd ½ via trailing profit stop :-).

Per HSL 650: traders bought Dec at 1250.20 or better.

Stocks in run-away upside mode & likely to stay strong as we head into the mid Dec-mid Jan period, which is habitually the most positive period of the year for stocks.

If out, buy Mar after a pullback that holds on or above 1240-1254 closing support band (gamblers buy at 1254); sell ½ at 1284, ½ at 1294.

Sell, or sell short (toehold) on 1-dc below 1224; stop: 1-dc over 1255. Cover ½ at 1192 & use trailing stop on rest. And/or sell short a rally that clearly stops below 1295-1300 resistance; stop: 2-dc over 1300. Cover ½ at 1254, ½ at 1240.

NOTE: Traders are advised to use mini S&P's to enter/exit trades incrementally. 1 mini Cx = $50/point, compared with $250 for full size Cx (5 minis = 1 full size).


Nasdaq

Nasdaq (mini) Mar futures closed Friday Nov 25 at 1720.50 ie, up 21.50pts on the week.

Nasdaq Composite weekly breadth figures show new highs almost tripled new lows (305-105), advances crushed declines (2050-1190) & advancing volume outpaced declining volume by a healthy ration of 1.82 to 1.

Nasdaq Composite (continuation Cx) weekly chart - line on close:


3-year reverse head & shoulder base gaining credence over uncertain bearish upwedge from Oct 2002 lows. Spinner & MACD show positive crosses in lower limits of overbought territory & have scope to confirm sustained strength. Gaining traction. Chart bullish.

HSLP-Nasdaq chart (HSLP = our in-house mkt predictor) line & bar:


Rose to new closing highs after redefining lower boundary of possible Apr 2004 bearish upwedge. Note that HSLP-Nasdaq is now confronting resistance from its peak of 2000, while its benchmark index the Nasdaq Comp has retraced a mere 23% from its corresponding high. A forceful rise above 2000 resistance in HSLP-Nasdaq would trigger a new lead signal for continued strength in the Nasdaq Comp. Meantime a potential double top (in 2000 & 2005) can't be excluded. Chart neutral to bullish.

Nasdaq (mini) Mar futures daily chart - line on close:


Explosive rise above resistance of Aug downtrend. Spinner in waning bull mode after refusing to confirm new highs in price; warns at shorterm setback of some sort (ie, consolidation dip within Oct uptrend channel). Chart bullish to shorterm neutral.

FMU Traders Guidelines:

Per FMU Sept 25: exited Dec shorts via trailing profit stop :-). Took profits on 1st ½ Dec longs :-); exit 2nd ½ at mkt (or apply tight trailing stop).

Per HSL 650: exited Dec shorts with loss L. Traders then bought Dec at 1632; take full profits at mkt (or apply tight trailing stop).

If out, buy Mar Cx after a pullback that clearly holds on or above 1660-1675 closing support. Sell ½ at 1712 (if buy low) & use trailing profits stops on rest.

Sell, or sell short (small size) on 2-dc below 1640; stop: 1-dc over 1675. Cover ½ at 1595, ½ at 1566.


Market Sentiment Indicators

AAII Index shows 57.3% bulls (up firmly from 53.6% of 2 weeks ago), 16.0% bears & 26.7% neutral.

Market Vane Bullish Consensus at 69%, up from 64% of 2 weeks ago & 63% of 3 weeks ago.

UBS Index of Investor Optimism (Overall Index) rose to 47 in Oct vs. 34 in Sept & 61 in Aug.


10 Best Performing Industries in past 3-months:

Platinum & Precious Metals Index +43.93%
Internet Index +36.98%
General Mining Index +33.58%
Nonferrous Metals Index +28.26%
Heavy Construction Index +28.03%
Trucking Index +24.70%
Insurance Brokers Index +20.01%
Investment Services Index +19.84%
Asset Managers Index +19.36%
Gold Mining Index +19.34%


10 Worst Performing Industries in past 3-months:

Automobiles Index -12.14%
Automobiles & Parts Index -10.25%
Auto Parts Index -8.91%
Distillers & Vintners Index -6.74%
Travel & Tourism Index -4.89%
Multi-utilities Index -4.44%
Gas, Water & Multi-utilities Index -3.49%
Publishing Index -3.37%
Pharmaceuticals Index -3.19%
Gas Distribution Index -3.13%


10-Year T-Note

10-Year T-Note Mar futures closed Friday Nov 25 at 109^03, ie up 0^16 on the week.

10-Year T-Note Mar futures daily chart - line on close:


Technical/oversold bounce within June downtrend channel. Note that a dip that holds on or above 108^09 may form right shoulder of 6-week reverse head & shoulder base with 110^30 conditional upside target. Spinner in positive cross but requires a new higher low in red timing line to underpin uncertain base action in blue confirming line. Chart neutral.

FMU Traders Guidelines:

Per FMU 9/30: took profits at both targets in Dec shorts :-)

Active/shorterm traders buy Mar Cx on 1-dc (or decisive rise) over 109^12 for run at 110^25 profit/sell target.

Sell, or sell short on 1-dc below 108^09; stop: 1-dc over 109^00. Cover ½ at 106^00 & use trailing profit stop on remainder. And/or sell a rally that clearly stops below 111^00; stop: 1-dc over 111^08. Cover ½ at 109^05, ½ at 108^09.


CRB Futures Index

CRB futures price index closed Friday Nov 25 at 330.42, ie up 0.66pts on the week.

CRB futures price index daily chart (continuation Cx) - line on close:


Mar-Aug cup & handle base offers 346 theoretical upside target. Spinners blue confirming line in new negative rotation below zero; hints consolidation below Oct peak may not yet be complete (ie: could see deeper dip towards or to test converging support of cup & handle neckline & major support of Feb 2002 uptrend line). Chart neutral.


Gold

NY gold Feb futures closed Wednesday Nov 23 (due to US Nov 24 holiday) at 496.40 ie, up 6.20 on the week.

***NY gold ends off lows in pre-holiday trade, eyes $500/oz
Wed Nov 23, 2005.

"NEW YORK, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Gold futures in New York ended down but off session lows Wednesday as the market continued to show it resilience and held just below the psychological level of $500 an ounce, market sources said.

"COMEX gold futures opened lower as investors were seen pocketing profits ahead of the long holiday weekend, but speculative buying supported prices at the lows and the market continued to consolidate after hitting an 18-year high at $495.90 on Tuesday.

"NYMEX metals will be closed on Thursday and Friday for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

"Benchmark December gold settled down 60 cents at $492.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, after dealing from 487.50 to $495.30. Its all-time high, based on the nearby futures contract, was $873, reached in January 1980.

"Final estimated COMEX gold volume reached 110,000 lots, with 10,319 switches.

"The trend is really strong, especially after a performance like today where it looked relatively weak in the morning and then we came right back up to settle above $490," said Scott Meyers, senior trading analyst at Pioneer Futures.

"Since the start of the year, COMEX gold has climbed 14 percent, or $59, on strong investor demand. Floor dealers said the market may have the ability to reach $500 an ounce next week as over the counter options expire on Monday, Nov. 28, with all settlements occurring on Nov. 30.

"We always track options expiration dates. Can you imagine what type of money upstairs is around $500? You don't think those guys are going to want the market to move toward that strike price," one COMEX trader said." End quote

Gold (continuation Cx) weekly chart - line on close:


Per comments in the Nov 9 issue of Gold Charts R Us: Here's an update of the gold chart back to 2001, showing gold moving in steps, with regular sharp falls in-between, making for ideal trading conditions. Falls of $50 to $70 make it essential to take profits & use stops to both protect profits & avoid loss. And to avoid tying up cash in losing positions for extended periods. Also avoids the emotional stress of price crashes, which typically forces nervous hands out of the mkt just before major laws develop. ooAt present gold has risen to a new step but note how often it penetrates its new intermediate support & falls to touch the longterm trendline before rising again. Note how selling & rebuying chances were constantly repeated. Remember, leverage in gold shares exaggerates what U see here in gold by 50-100% on average, up&down. So a bullion fall of 25% will normally be 37% to 50% in a gold stock. This chart page is pure gold. Wall it.

Note: Gold Charts R Us is our weekly online gold share trading service.
Special 'Two-Week Taster' offer available at $45 via:
http://www.hsletter.com/gcrupromo_special.html
oNew Subscribers only. GCRU also offers a few stocks in alternatives (oil/steel/metals) for diversification.

Gold Feb futures daily chart - line on close:


Explosive high volume rise above Oct downtrend resistance eliminated threat of Sept-Oct H&S top. Crucial 500 resistance may cap a 3-wave rise from July lows. If yes, a consolidation dip towards support of July uptrend (now 462) may develop. If not, a rise above 500 could trigger a climax rally/overshoot towards the 520-535 area. Chart neutral to shorterm bearish.

FMU Trader's gold Guidelines:

Per HSL650: whipsawed for loses in long & shorts :-(

Uptrend from July lows shorterm overstretched/uncertain; limit new longs to toehold positioning only. Gamblers buy Feb Cx if dips to 488.50 &/or 481.30; place preliminary stoploss 12-points below your entry/buy point (basis close). Take ½ profits at 509.60, ½ at 517.40 (or use tight trailing profits stop to follow upside).

Sustained break below 460 needed to overturn bullish stance.


Euro vs. US$

Euro Mar futures closed Friday Nov 25 at 1.1780 ie, down 0.0060 on the week.

Euro Mar futures weekly chart - basis line on close:


Broke pivotal neckline support of Nov-2003-Oct 2005 bearish head & shoulder top; 1.0270 theoretical downside target. Spinner signals negative to shorterm neutral as would take little upside in price to pull blue confirming line above zero. MACD rolling over in mid zone of oversold window. Chart bearish.

Euro Mar futures daily chart - basis line on close:


June-Nov head & shoulder top (produced right shoulder of larger Nov-2003-Oct 2005 H&S top); 1.1370 possible downside target. Spinner in crosscurrent bear mode; hints at short-lived bounce only. MACD in tentative upturn at mid range of oversold window. Chart bearish.

FMU Trader's Guidelines:

Per FMU 9/30: exited Dec longs with loss :-( Traders then sold short Dec on break below 1.2000.

Per HSL650: traders sold short Dec at 1.1830 (or better).

Head & shoulder tops are the most reliable of technical formations but can develop surprisingly sharp countertrend rallies if reversed to the upside (as recently seen in gold). The trend is clearly down but would become defective on any rise above Mar downtrend resistance. Stay flexible.

Sell short Mar Cx at mkt &/or after a bounce that clearly stops at or below 1.2010-1.2160 resistance band; cover ½ at 1.1440 & use trailing profit stops on rest.

Stop & reverse/buy on 1-dc (or significant intraday rise) above 1.2230; stop: 2-dc below 1.1960. Sell ½ at 1.2550, ½ at 1.2830.

NOTE: Traders are advised to use mini forex contracts to enter/exit trades incrementally. 1 mini Cx = $100/full point, compared with $1,000 for full size Cx (10 minis = 1 full size).


Yen vs. US$

Yen Mar futures closed Friday Nov 25 at .8468 ie, down .0039 on the week.

Yen Mar futures daily chart - line on close:


In waterfall downtrend from Sept high. Broke crucial July support before most of the major currency crosses against the USD & continues to be the weakest challenger. Momentum indicators itching to confirm a bounce of some sort, but with negative trend so deeply entrenched any sustained up move highly seems unlikely anytime soon.

FMU Trader's Guidelines:

Per FMU 9/30: gamblers sold short Dec at .8915; take full profits at mkt, or apply squeaky tight trailing stops to lock in gains.

Per HSL650: traders sold short Dec at .8602.

Tuff call to enter new trades in such a lengthy & exceptionally oversold downtrend from Sept peak that has yet to develop any retracement action of significance. Prefer wait for a mini bounce before initiating new longs.

Sell short Mar after a bounce that clearly fails at or below .8767-.8844 intermediate resistance; cover ½ at .8410, ½ at .8230 or use trailing stops to follow downside.

Buy on 1-dc over .8840; stop: 1-dc below .8550. Sell ½ at .9140, ½ at .9290.


Crude Oil

Crude oil Jan futures closed Friday Nov 25 at 58.71 ie, up 1.50 on the week.

The Commitment of Traders report shows crude oil commercial hedgers added 13,375 longs, bringing total longs to 543,858, whilst shorts added 8119 contracts, bringing total shorts to 473,204. Large speculators are holding 115,494 longs against 117,662 shorts. And, small traders are holding 155,678 longs against 190,543 shorts.

Bullish Consensus shows crude oil futures at 60%. Says: "Crude Oil futures are moving sideways/higher to test short-term overhead
resistance. The Daily Bullish Consensus unchanged at 60 and trends higher, well below the overbought area. Short Term Momentum Oscillators hover moderately below the neutral area. Signals remain
neutral short-term. The intermediate trend is neutral.

Crude oil Jan futures daily chart - line on close:


Slim bullish downwedge from Aug 29 peak vs. neckline breakdown in June-Nov head & shoulders top; 46.60 is measured target (but weekly chart shows major support of Feb 2004 uptrend may halt downside at 53.00). Negative pressure easing in Spinner & MACD but will require more time to develop convincing reversal/base signals. Sustained rise above Aug downtrend could spur technical buying/sharp reversal. Chart bearish to shorterm neutral.

FMU Trader's Guidelines:

Per FMU 9/30: took profits at both targets in Dec shorts :-)

Gamblers sell short Jan after bounce that clearly stops below 59.60 neckline resistance of June-Nov H&S top; cover all at 53.40.

Buy Jan on 1-dc over 60.40; stop: 2-dc below 57.00. Buy more on rise above 64.00. Take ½ profits at 67.30, ½ at 69.80.


New Stock Recommendations

Note: the energy sector is showing timid signs of a revival that hint an important reversal may be at hand (need crude oil above 64.00 to substantiate). Thus we are looking to tentatively reposition in energy stocks. Start by buying toehold positions in 1 or 2 energy stocks only & increase exposure only if /when trades move in your favor. If the reversal fizzles out, be ready to cut losses & move back to sidelines.


Atlas America (Nasdaq: ATLS - oil/gas expl-prod) high volume rise above reverse head & shoulder base. Gamblers buy bit at mkt &/or (all) buy if dips to 53.20 &/or 50.70; stop: 1-dc below 45.90.


Cardero Resources (TSXV: CDU - iron-oxide, copper & gold) (also trades AMEX: CDY) high volume rise above 20-month bullish ascending triangle. Gamblers buy if dips to 4.46 &/or 4.20; stop: 1-dc below 3.50. Speculative.


Laramide Resources (TSXV: LAM - uranium) high volume rise above bullish symmetrical triangle from Sept peak. Gamblers buy toehold at mkt &/or buy if dips to 6.56 &/or 6.05; stop: 1-dc below 4.80.


Pan American Silver Corp (Nasdaq: PAAS - gold/silver) upside breakout from bullish symmetrical triangle from Apr 2004 peak (best seen on weekly chart). Buy bit at mkt &/or buy if dips to 17.80; stop: 1-dc below 15.40.


Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN - oil/gas expl-prod) buy on upside breakout from 5-week reverse head & shoulder base, ie: buy at 38.80-stop; stop: 1-dc below 32.90.


Spdr Energy Sector (AMEX: XLE - index tracking) rose above bullish symmetrical triangle from Sept peak. Buy foothold at mkt &/or buy if dips to 49.40; stop: 44.70. Buy again on sustained rise over 52.00 & 55.00.


W-H Energy Svcs (NYSE: WHQ - oil/gas-field svcs) expanding potential reverse head & shoulder base below pivotal 34.00 resistance. Buy at 34.90-stop; stop: 1-dc below 29.90.


Notes:

1)Traders are strongly advised to limit total equity exposure in their portfolios to percentages outlined in the HSL Investment Box.

2)Traders must adapt recommendations to shorterm mkt direction. If strength/weakness kicks in before pullbacks to buy/sell levels are reached, enter small foothold positions at mkt. Likewise if general mkt direction moves against open positions, exit at mkt rather than waiting for stoploss levels to be hit. Your interpretation & modification based on conditions of our recommendations often makes the difference betwn profits or losses.


Stop & Sell Recommendations

Take partial profits on:
Aqualine Resources at 2.10 & then raise stop to 1.54.
Cia Vale Rio Doce at mkt & raise stop to 31.00.
Coeur D'Alene at 4.90 & then raise stop to 3.45.
Compania Vale Do Rio at 45.60 & then raise stop to 35.40.
Crucell Nv at mkt & raise stop to 19.90.
Dowa Mining at mkt & raise stop to 825.
Elementis at mkt & raise stop to 54.00.
Endeavour Silver at 2.69 & then raise stop to 1.94.
First Quantum Minerals at 31.30 & then raise stop to 24.70.
Gammon Lake (US) at mkt & raise stop to 6.80.
Higashinihon Gas at 560.
Hiland Ptnrs at 45.90 & then raise stop to 38.20.
Johnston Press at 450.
Mega Uranium (ex Maple) at mkt & raise stop to 2.30.
Mines Mgmt at mkt & raise stop to 1-dc below 5.30.
Mologen at mkt & raise stop to 6.40.
Norfolk Southern at mkt & raise stop to 37.30.
NTL Inc at 51.30.
Nvidia at mkt & raise stop to 30.30.
Precision Castparts at mkt.
Renova Energy at mkt.
Sika at 1040.
Tesco Corp at mkt & change stoploss to 14.50-stop.
Tim Participacoes at mkt & raise stop to 17.30.

Raise stop on:
Burren Energy to 680.
Cerner Corp to 83.80.
Kardan to 3.40.
Taftnet to 42.00.
XTO Energy to 34.90.

Lower stop on:
Gannet to 73.60.

Sell at mkt:
General Dynamics.
Pep Boys Manny Moe.
Prudent Bear Fd.
Vanguard Infl-Prot Fd.

Cover at mkt:
Wal Mart.

Cancel Order to:
Buy Northfolk Southern if dips to 38.50.
Sell short Bovis Homes at 585-stop.
Buy Aquiline Resources if dips to 1.62.
Buy Dowa Mining if dips to 875.
Buy Higashinihon Gas if dips to 485 & 475.

Note: HSL recom's are followed by a wide selection of investors, ranging from novice traders to professional fund managers. And, many Hslm's have requested we give partial profit taking signals (at intermediate resistance levels) to allow incremental exit from medium to large share positions. Thus, recom's to take partial profits can be given up to 3 times before a position is finally exited.



Welcome to the editorial section of HSL Junior

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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