US Market
October 2004
could
dive. I’ve
given guidelines in our Futures section
for fine-tuning the mkt averages as usual. •••See the
DJ
World Index chart on this page. If it was a stock, U’d buy it.
That
keeps me from being bearish. •••Personally, I’m
doing some
light buying, mostly in energy stocks, a steel, 1-2 commodities,
golds, a China & an India fund, defense & pollution stks. Read
our New Recommendations list, pg 10; lots of good buys there.
All have stops on them to protect on the downside.
••I’ll bet most of U don’t read our Closed Positions list. U
should. It reveals profits/losses each time. U’ll be amazed at
what a good batting average is going on under your nose. With
stops, there is little to fear, much to gain. I don’t just buy, of
course. I also sell, as soon as a modest profit appears. If U don’t
take profits, U will usually wish U had. Also, when a stk gives U a
profit it usually means it’s overbought at that point, so why not
sell, say thank U, & await the next train. •••Note:
Avg US mutual
funds have underperformed the stk averages for years. U
can do better yourself (well, with HSL help ☺). •••Yes,
it bothers
me the consensus shows too many bulls, too few bears, but
that has been going on for many months. And with the US govt
supporting the S&P, the upside bias has the upper hand. Yes,
stks are overvalued, but that’s non-specific to the clock. •In
any
case, I’m not talking mkt averages here, but rather certain
groups & indiv stks. ••Pull up stops tight before the US
election
in case of a sharp fall if the “wrong” man wins (whoever that
is). •••US bonds gave a chart sell signal, IMO, on Oct 1.
Treasury
Bonds had risen to my uppermost tgt at 109 & died there,
on target. Many claimed it was a bond bull mkt; I said it was only
a pullback rally. •• BL: it’s ok for U to drive your car
if U wear
seat belts. It’s ok to buy stocks here if U wear stoploss orders.
••Market-Track: DJIA: at 10192.65, is 105.73 pts
below its
key 200-day moving average (MA) at (10298.38). S&P500: at
1131.50 is 13.08 pts above its 200-day MA (1118.42). Nasdaq
Comp: at 1452.94 is 130.75 pts above its 200-day MA
(1440.69). Thus, S&P500 & Nasdaq Comp are bullish basis the
200-day MA, while DJIA remains bearish.