HSL / Newsletter Sample

Tid Bits
December 2007

That makes it OK, dear reader! They whitewash all the dirty laundry. Bloomberg is more ethical than CNBC. BBC is mo s t honest, but has no financial talent.

Volume in all world stk mkts is shrinking. Investors are, understandably, frozen in tracks of credit crisis monster. That means small buying or selling has a big effect on prices, makes investing higher risk if stops aren’t used. Also, the last 2-3 wks of Dec are normally abnormal. So, tread lightly, but don’t fail to make the changes recom herein to protect your assets. In JFK terms: “Ask not what U can do for your profits, ask what U can do for your protection.” ☺ •••• Global multinational stks are safest, as they’re both diversified & derive income largely from non-US$ sales. Many domestic stks are riskier whether in US (cheap-$) or out (hi cost euro, etc). My own preference is multinationals in food, beverage & chemical biz, along with multis in metals (Precious & base metals).

Via Dow Theory, on Nov 21, we’re now in a bear mkt value-wise & DJIA/DJT confirmation-wise. Keep that in mind for the big picture. It has years to run so we’ll return to it later on. ••• Money supply in EU rose at fastest in 28yrs. M3 grew 12.3% in Oct, after 11% in Sept. ••• UK property derivative prices tumbled, wherein 1-year forward prices fell to all time lows. These are swaps betw’n total property returns & interest rates, based on libor rates. 1-yr forwards are predicting an 8% fall in total commercial property returns over next 12 mos. Some say 15%. In Mar they forecast a 6% rise. Things have changed! (This is typical world property derivative structure). UK biggest world mkt for property deriva tives due to data quality. Hah!

We all have to make indiv decisions, but personally I think flu shots are aprox stupid. In some cases, may be justified, but to have them blindly, as if we are all physically equal, is foolish. ••••Norman Mailer died, at 84. Scary, age-wise. Scary when freedom defenders shrink as human rights attackers expand. Sad when thinkers die, even if don’t agree with them. •• Newsletter writer Bob Beckman has died at 74 of lung cancer, an inveterate smoker. Another bold freedom fighter gone. ••• 3 US banks failed in 07 so far, a 4th on edge. The FDIC “bank problem list” rose to 65. FDIC doesn’t have funds to bail out a large number of banks.

Goldman Sachs predicts 2008 to be darkest year ever in financial history! ••• Bob Chapman says Citigroup to be nationalized! ••• Abu Dhabi got rid of its US$’s via the Citibank deal. ••• I hear 10% of hedge funds will go out of biz this year. ••• Auto loans are sign of econ health. US car loan delinquencies at 16-yr high. Car sales down. Then come credit card delinquencies. ••• UK govt may nationalize Northern Rock. If so, sets theme for others. ••• US$ futures loaded with short positions. Some will cover on this rally, confusing public re value.

 

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